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OECD wierzy w polską gospodarkę - nowe prognozy

wtorek, 28-11-2017 godz. 16:04

OECD ma kolejne dobre prognozy dla Polski. W przedstawionej dzisiaj publikacji eksperci zakładają, że nasze PKB wzrośnie nie o 3,6%, a o 4,3% w tym roku. Przyszłoroczne przewidywania zakładają, że polska gospodarka będzie rozwijała się w tempie 3,5%. Wcześniej prognozowano zwyżkę o 3,1%. Zmniejszono natomiast prognozy względem deficytu sektora rządowego i samorządowego.
Organizacja Współpracy Gospodarczej i Rozwoju (OECD) przedstawiła swoje najnowsze prognozy wobec polskiej gospodarki. Były one wyraźne lepsze od poprzednich. O ile poprzednim razem międzynarodowi eksperci zakładali, że nasz Produkt Krajowy Brutto wzrośnie w tym roku o 3,6%, to obecnie spodziewają się zwyżki na poziomie 4,3%.

Dodano przy tym, że o ile jeszcze w tym roku wzrost polskiego PKB przekroczy 4,0%, to w kolejnych latach dynamika ta będzie nieco zwalniać. Podkreślono, że tempo wzrostu jest obecnie napędzane sytuacją wewnętrzną. Zwrócono uwagę głównie na rozbudowaną politykę socjalną, spadające bezrobocie i odbicie inwestycji. Te trzy czynniki najmocniej stymulują wewnętrzny popyt.

Niemniej, na rok następny także podniesiono prognozę. OECD zwiększyło ją o 0,4 punkty procentowe i spodziewa się zwyżki PKB już nie o 3,1%, a o 3,5%. Ponadto zdecydowano o obniżeniu przewidywań odnośnie deficytu naszego sektora rządowego i samorządowego. W tym roku ma on wynieść 2,1%, a nie jak sądzono wcześniej 2,9%. W 2018r. spodziewany jest deficyt na poziomie 2,3%, a nie 3,0%.

Eksperci z OECD przewidują również, że już na początku 2018r. Rada Polityki Pieniężnej postanowi podnieść stopy procentowe. Poprawiająca się sytuacja na rodzimym rynku pracy, będzie bowiem zwiększać presję inflacyjną, co ostatecznie skłoni ekonomistów do rezygnacji z utrzymujących się od wielu miesięcy, rekordowo niskich stóp. Przypomnijmy, że główna stopa referencyjna wynosi obecnie tylko 2,5%.

Dodatkowo analitycy OECD oszacowali, jaki wpływ na wartość polskiego PKB miały w tym roku wypłaty z programu 500+ oraz decyzja rządu o obniżeniu wieku emerytalnego. Wyliczono, że dopłaty dla rodzin z dziećmi stanowiły ok. 1,5% wartości PKB, a powrót do dawnego wieku przejścia na emeryturę kosztował nas ok. 0,5% PKB.

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